The devastating M7.6 earthquake that struck Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Hazara and Northern Areas on October 08, 2005 morning has caused horrendous loss of life, great human sufferings and misery, and wide spread loss of property and infrastructure. The astounding scale of death toll caused by this tremor one month after the quake exceeds 86, 000, 570,000 affected and more than 350, 000 rendered shelterless in fast approaching harsh winter. The earthquake made 150, 000 jobless and it is estimated that collateral damage to the tune of 5 billion $ occurred. The tremors were felt at XII on the Modified Marcalli intensity scale at the epicenter Gori, 20 km from Muzaffarabad, X in Mansehra, Bagh and Rawala kot, IX in Batgram, VIII in Abottabad and VI in Islamabad.

The killer quake is likely to become a defining moment in the country’s history by the sheer magnitude of challenges it has posed for institutions of governance and key aspects of public policy. For hundreds of million years, the forces of plate tectonics have shaped the Earth as the huge plates that form the Earth’s lithosphere and crust slowly move over, under, and past each other. Sometimes the movement is gradual. At other times, the plates are locked together like Japanese sumo wrestlers, unable to release their accumulating energy. When the accumulated energy grows strong enough, the plates break free. An earthquake is a sudden movement of the earth, caused by the abrupt release of this enormous strain that has been accumulating over a long period. Approximately 10, 000 large earthquakes have occurred within a 400 by 500 km (200, 000 sq.km) area in Northern Pakistan and AJK. The epicenter of October 08 catastrophic event lied 95 km NNE of Islamabad, in the Hazara-Kashmir syntaxes, close to the Main Boundary Thurst (MBT) and in close proximity of the alignment of Pattan Fault. Pir Panjal, Jhelum and Margalla faults also lie in close vicinity of this earthquake affected area and energy had been accumulating in these fault zones for the last one century. The historical data and seismic record from 25 AD shows more than 150 major events of shallow depth point to the fact that the northern country are constantly undergoing active tectonic transformation rendering the area as a highly seismically hazardous zone where severe damages could be expected anytime without any forewarning.

The Geological Survey of Pakistan is chartered to undertake basic and applied research in all fields of earth sciences. As the nation’s premier earth science research agency, GSP is responsible for the study of geology of the country in all its pertinent details, engineering and geo-hazard studies. One of the ways to make the public and private sectors aware of the specific risks of earthquakes in individual areas is known as seismic risk zone mapping in which geologists assess the likelihood of having earthquakes of specific magnitudes in an area, then integrate knowledge of how the earth materials in a region will correspond to seismic shaking to make a map of likely effects throughout the region. Information in GSP’s seismo-tectonic maps should be consulted by planners for designing construction which can greatly reduce casualties from natural calamities. The department carries out post earthquake study of many variable and measurable parameters like stresses in underground rocks, micro-seismic activity and frequency which may lead to the danger zones demarcation. It had already prepared Geological Maps of Pakistan on 1:50, 000 and 1:1,000,000 scales, Seismic Risk Maps of Northern and Southern Pakistan, Tectonic Map of Pakistan, Seismo-tectonic Map of Pakistan, and Seismic Risk Zone Map of Pakistan which are available for end users in the public domain. The Geodynamics of Pakistan published by GSP covers the most comprehensive picture of the patterns of past, present, and possibly even future geological processes. GSP has also published maps and reports about the geology of outcrop areas of the country including AJK and Northern Areas and also District Geological Maps for Quetta, Karachi, Chitral and Islamabad. The department has amassed an exhaustive contribution of research reports & papers and geologic maps since the last 3-4 decades which form the basic archive to define, refine and use them to draw concrete conclusions for the identification and classification of regions into zones having a lower or higher vulnerability to earthquakes by the end users.

The GSP carries out post earthquake investigations as every event is geologically unique and has published geological reports on the earthquake investigations after the Quetta, Harnai, Kalat, Pattan, Hazara & Kohistan Earthquakes. The GSP dispatched two teams of geologists from Islamabad and Peshawar offices soon after October 08 tremor which undertook investigations in the affected areas. Based on the seismo-tectonic studies of Hazar-Kohistan, MBT west of the syntaxes shows downward extension towards north in Kohistan in Indus-Kohistan seismic zone which is a thrust and is seismically active zone. The Kohistan Earthquake of 6.5 M of December 1974 located on the Pattan Fault in the same region may also have contributed to the recent event as the IKSZ trends NNW-SSE for about 40 km connecting the Hazara syntaxes with Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) in the vicinity of Pattan.

A team of GSP geologists was also dispatched to the high risk zone in Alai, Battagram areas to investigate the reports of volcanic activity in the area and smoke emitting from the mountains. People reportedly heard sounds of frequent blasts and seen blue smoke emitting from the mountains in Battila and Ganthar areas. GSP earth scientists who were flown to these areas ruled out the possibility of any volcanic eruption in the area and submitted their investigation report to the concerned authorities. They also told the area people that the explosions may be due to escape of trapped gases from the fissures created by the tremors and frequent land sliding during aftershocks. In most cases mass wasting occurs by a slow gradual creeping of soils and rocks downhill, but during earthquake large volumes of rock, soil, and all that is built on them may suddenly collapse in a landslide. Earthquake induced landslides have occurred in areas with steep slopes or cliffs washing away road network and large parts of the mountains slid out to the rivers blocking their routes. When aftershocks between 5 and 6 magnitude struck, this area slid out toward the steep slopes on a series of curving faults that connected in a slippery shale unit which lost almost all cohesion, and shaking of the soil and rock above it caused ground sliding and mass wasting. The geologists informed the concerned quarters about movement of tectonic plate and release of stored energy in the fault zones which are indicated on GSP ‘s published Maps. During earthquake, blocks of earth shifted relative to one another resulting in changes in the ground level, base level, water table and uplifts. The GSP Karachi office also deputed a team to examine the Clifton, Sea view and Defence areas where minor tremors were being felt from the past three months.

Mirza Talib Hasan, DG GSP called on the Prime Minister on October 30 and presented the geological report about GSP survey which has found nothing to suggest that there was some kind of volcanic activity or eruption in Alai area. There is no evidence of gas leakage or volcanic activity. The preliminary results of these surveys were promptly conveyed to the Army officials and other concerned authorities and were made public through electronic and print media. The DG informed that there is no gaseous release and that there is no question of any volcanic eruption. The dust rising from the mountains and the explosions heard there are due to rock falls, falling debris and big boulders due to heavy land slides.

Mirza Talib Hassan, Director General appeared in Pakistan Television programs to brief the public about the earthquake geology. Mr. A. M. Subhani, DDG GSP Quetta;Dr. A.B.Kausar, Mr. Firdous Khan, Directors GSP Islamabad and Dr. Tahseen-ullah, focal person on Earthquake tragedy also participated in several talk shows, whenever contacted by the media. The GSP’s Geological Museum Quetta often arranges geoscientific talks on earthquake preparedness and feeling its responsibility in this national tragedy had started a series of lectures and drills at local educational institutions on voluntary basis soon after October 08 Earthquake. Not only is Islamabad, AJK, Hazara division but Karachi and many other cities in Sindh remained in the grip of rumours of another massive earthquake but also the NWFP. Everyone had their own predictions about the next big tremor creating panic among the common citizens, especially the women and children. The DG, GSP and other geoscientists appeared on the electronic and print media and explained the earthquake geology to quell these baseless rumours. The objective of GSP museum’s education service campaign in Quetta was to provide teachers, parents and students with scientific information to help children cope with quakes in the wake of destruction of the educational infrastructure and death of about 20, 000 school children in the aftermath of October 08 earthquake.

Most earthquakes are caused by sudden slippage of blocks along geologic faults because of movement of tectonic plates but it is not the tremor which kills humans, the poorly designed buildings do. Being located in the vicinity of active geological faults, Quetta, Islamabad and Karachi are under constant threat of an earthquake. October 08 tremors has also given a wake up call to the country as to how much vulnerable the people’s lives, abodes and livelihoods are due to absence of any integrated disaster management plan. This event should also serve as an incentive for builders and developers to start considering with this in mind when designing new buildings. Except Quetta and Karachi, construction codes are nonexistent, or criminally violated. It is feared that if mushrooming construction of inferior quality continues unchecked in the cities, half the newly constructed buildings will crumble in 20-30 years with just a moderate earthquake hitting the region. Unless something is done about this immediately, things are only going to get much worse. The GSP geologists have been stressing the need to re-enforce the existing buildings and strictly follow the building code in construction of new buildings. The GSP’s published geological maps and reports and photogeologic compilation of active fault zones should be consulted by the town planners, building control authorities architects and civil engineers to plan and design cities and structures in consonance with the needed seismic parameters to minimize the losses in the event of a natural calamity. Adequate earthquake and fire precautions are usually not taken into account when high rise buildings are constructed in big cities like Quetta and Karachi. The multi storey shopping plazas and medical complexes being built in the mega cities these days do not give priority to parking spaces, flame detectors, emergency alarms, fire extinguishers for passive protection, emergency exits, hydrants and compartmentalization of buildings. Any event in the future of this dimension triggered on or along the regional faults or offshoots would therefore wreck havoc to towns in close proximity of these faults identified by the GSP.

The intensity and frequency of natural calamities have reportedly increased substantially in this part of the world but we have not yet succeeded in developing an institutional framework to respond to recurring disasters in a systematic way. So far the approach seems to be very ad hoc. Monsoon rains and consequent river floods in the country are an example in this case, which are natural phenomenon that can be monitored and predicted well before hand to get oneself well prepared. But the havoc surrounding monsoon every year speaks volumes for the authorities’ preparedness, or the lack of it, in such situations. Like always, natural calamities come unannounced. Like always, there was no preparation except mere lip service. Like always people complained of inadequate relief activity, adding to the people’s difficulties and miseries. This lethargic approach of a standard post catastrophe story, only brings the response when the disaster had struck in the form of relief operations. The GSP geoscientists have underscored the need for sustainable solutions to cope with earthquakes and other natural calamities in mitigating losses, trainings and paying a little now which can save a lot later. Learning to live in disaster zones means actively and continuously monitoring fault lines and building better designed structures that can withstand earth tremors. What is needed is to develop a viable institutional structure with capacity of assessing probabilities and specifying risk areas in advance. Based on such assessment, a comprehensive planning can be developed with well defined coordination mechanism and clear roles and responsibilities. An efficient management and command system at the core level can integrate and direct different functioning arms towards the same end disaster preparedness, preventive measures and risk management.

A meeting of geoscientists of GSP was held on 11 October 2005 at its headquarets office Quetta. Mirza Talib Hassan, Director General chaired the meeting. The geoscientists sympathized with the earthquake affected families and offered fateha for all those who perished in October 08 Earthquake. The Geoscientists of the GSP announced to donate their three day and staff one day salaries in the President’s Relief Fund and relief committees at the HQs and all regional offices of GSP collected donations within the department for distribution among the employees of the department who are victims of this calamity.

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